Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz
Marktwahrscheinlichkeiten
Volume: $564,329
Die Wahrscheinlichkeiten spiegeln die kollektive Marktstimmung wider. Keine Anlageberatung.
Marktübersicht
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. — Odds: Carlos Alcaraz 100.0% · Under 100.0% · Under 2.5 100.0% · Completed Match 100.0% · Over 100.0%
Datenquelle: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 8일 오후 10:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "Carlos Alcaraz" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
Carlos Alcaraz (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
Under (100%)
Alternative scenario with 100% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Under 2.5 (100%)
Currently rated at 100%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution in 6 days
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in 6 days (short-term)