US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
Probabilidades del mercado
Volume: $314,262
Las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento colectivo del mercado. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Resumen del mercado
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. — Odds: November 5 93.2% · November 6 88.0% · November 8 81.5% · November 15 56.0% · November 30 42.5%
Fuente de datos: Polymarket.
Market End
Live1월 1일 오후 01:59
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "November 5" scenario leads at 93%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
November 5 (93%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (93%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 73%
November 6 (88%)
Alternative scenario with 88% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
November 8 (82%)
Currently rated at 82%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
2+ months (long-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
Este análisis se basa en datos del mercado de predicciones de Polymarket.
View on Polymarket
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