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Tennis·Sports·Games

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

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3 min lecturaPolymarket
6d 22h left
Volumen: $236K
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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Probabilidades del mercado

Alex Michelsen99.7%
Under98.4%
Over50.0%
Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo3.5%

Volume: $236,011

Total Vol: $236,01124h: $250,236Liquidity: $52,124

Las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento colectivo del mercado. No es asesoramiento de inversión.

Resumen del mercado

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. — Odds: Alex Michelsen 99.7% · Under 98.4% · Over 50.0% · Over 2.5 50.0% · Under 2.5 50.0%

Fuente de datos: Polymarket.

Market End

Live

11월 17일 오후 09:00

D-7

Time to market close

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What It Means for Traders

Market consensus: "Alex Michelsen" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case100%

Alex Michelsen (100%)

The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.

Triggers:
  • →Official announcement or confirmation
  • →Positive comments from relevant authorities
  • →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Invalidation:

Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%

Base Case98%

Under (98%)

Alternative scenario with 98% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.

Triggers:
  • →Data release contradicting initial expectations
  • →Shift in position by key stakeholders
  • →Gradual change in market sentiment
Invalidation:

New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift

Bear Case50%

Over (50%)

Currently rated at 50%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.

Triggers:
  • →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
  • →Major system failure or security incident
  • →Global macro shock event
Invalidation:

Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • •Resolution in 7 days
  • •Related official announcements or data releases
  • •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities

Timeline to Resolution

Resolution in 7 days (short-term)

This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All trading decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
Fuente original

Polymarket

Este análisis se basa en datos del mercado de predicciones de Polymarket.

View on Polymarket
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