Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz
Market Probabilities
Volume: $220,199
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. — Odds: Over 69.0% · Carlos Alcaraz 50.5% · Under 50.5% · Under 2.5 50.5% · Matteo Berrettini 50.5%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 13일 오전 03:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "Over" scenario leads at 69%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
Over (69%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (69%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 49%
Carlos Alcaraz (51%)
Alternative scenario with 51% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Under (51%)
Currently rated at 51%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in ~2 weeks (medium-term)
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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