Elon Musk # tweets November 2 - November 4, 2026?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $852,869
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 2 12:00 PM ET to November 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. — Odds: 65-89 100.0% · 165-189 0.1% · 190-214 0.1% · 90-114 0.1% · 115-139 0.1%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 5일 오전 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "65-89" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
65-89 (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
165-189 (0%)
Alternative scenario with 0% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (0%)
Currently rated at 0%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Awaiting resolution or already resolved
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket