Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?
市場確率
Volume: $467,992
確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。
マーケット概要
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 9 12:00 PM ET to November 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. — Odds: <40 100.0% · 65-89 0.1% · 40-64 0.1% · 90-114 0.1% · 140-164 0.1%
データ出典: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 12일 오전 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "<40" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
<40 (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
65-89 (0%)
Alternative scenario with 0% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (0%)
Currently rated at 0%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Awaiting resolution or already resolved
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Crypto Long & Short: The GENIUS Act’s guarantees don’t cover DeFi lending
Institutions weighing DeFi lending tend to ask which markets are safest. Mike Hathaway and Joseph Quintilian of Ajna argue the better question is who can change a loan’s terms after the money is lent, and why a fully backed stablecoin offers no protection against a token vote or a faulty price feed.