Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $182,394
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. — Odds: December 31 30.5% · November 30 16.5% · November 15 4.0%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live1월 1일 오전 06:59
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "December 31" scenario leads at 31%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
December 31 (31%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (31%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
November 30 (17%)
Alternative scenario with 17% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (4%)
Currently rated at 4%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
2+ months (long-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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