Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez
Market Probabilities
Volume: $230,249
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Sebastian Baez in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. — Odds: Daniel Merida Aguilar 100.0% · Under 100.0% · Completed Match 100.0% · Under 2.5 100.0% · Sebastian Baez 0.1%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 11일 오후 07:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "Daniel Merida Aguilar" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
Daniel Merida Aguilar (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
Under (100%)
Alternative scenario with 100% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Completed Match (100%)
Currently rated at 100%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in ~2 weeks (medium-term)
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket