Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

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Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

Market Probabilities

Over76.0%
Luca Van Assche75.5%
Ben Shelton70.5%
Under 2.555.5%
Completed Match55.0%
Under50.0%
Over 2.544.5%

Volume: $268,226

Total Vol: $268,22624h: $278,355Liquidity: $120,438

Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Ben Shelton in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. — Odds: Over 76.0% · Luca Van Assche 75.5% · Ben Shelton 70.5% · Under 2.5 55.5% · Completed Match 55.0%

Based on Polymarket.

Market End

Live

11월 14일 오후 10:30

D-7

Time to market close

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What It Means for Traders

Market consensus: "Over" scenario leads at 76%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case76%

Over (76%)

The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (76%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.

Triggers:
  • →Official announcement or confirmation
  • →Positive comments from relevant authorities
  • →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Invalidation:

Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 56%

Base Case76%

Luca Van Assche (76%)

Alternative scenario with 76% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.

Triggers:
  • →Data release contradicting initial expectations
  • →Shift in position by key stakeholders
  • →Gradual change in market sentiment
Invalidation:

New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift

Bear Case71%

Ben Shelton (71%)

Currently rated at 71%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.

Triggers:
  • →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
  • →Major system failure or security incident
  • →Global macro shock event
Invalidation:

Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • •Resolution in 7 days
  • •Related official announcements or data releases
  • •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities

Timeline to Resolution

Resolution in 7 days (short-term)

This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All trading decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
Original Source

Polymarket

This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.

View on Polymarket
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