What price will Bitcoin hit on November 5?
Probabilidades del mercado
Volume: $290,586
Las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento colectivo del mercado. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Resumen del mercado
What price will Bitcoin hit on November 5? — Odds: ↓ 75,000 28.6% · ↓ 74,000 10.4% · ↓ 73,000 4.2% · ↑ 81,000 1.2% · ↑ 82,000 0.5%
Fuente de datos: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 6일 오후 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "↓ 75,000" scenario leads at 29%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
↓ 75,000 (29%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (29%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
↓ 74,000 (10%)
Alternative scenario with 10% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (4%)
Currently rated at 4%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •BTC: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
Este análisis se basa en datos del mercado de predicciones de Polymarket.
View on Polymarket
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