What price will Bitcoin hit on November 8?
Probabilidades del mercado
Volume: $413,419
Las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento colectivo del mercado. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Resumen del mercado
What price will Bitcoin hit on November 8? — Odds: ↓ 73,000 23.9% · ↓ 72,000 7.5% · ↑ 77,000 5.1% · ↓ 71,000 4.3% · ↑ 78,000 2.5%
Fuente de datos: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 9일 오후 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "↓ 73,000" scenario leads at 24%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
↓ 73,000 (24%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (24%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
↓ 72,000 (8%)
Alternative scenario with 8% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (5%)
Currently rated at 5%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •BTC: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
Este análisis se basa en datos del mercado de predicciones de Polymarket.
View on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). — Odds: December 31 78.5% · November 30 56.5% · November 22 50.5% · November 15 38.5% · November 8 14.5%