Costa do Sauipe: Daniel Galan vs Gonzalo Bueno

FutureRadar Desk
3 min readPolymarket
5d 22h left
Volume: $462K
원문·근거: Polymarket ↗
共有:
Costa do Sauipe: Daniel Galan vs Gonzalo Bueno

市場確率

Daniel Galan50.0%
Gonzalo Bueno50.0%
Completed Match0.4%

Volume: $462,050

Total Vol: $462,05024h: $463,067Liquidity: $1,354

確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。

マーケット概要

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Galan and Gonzalo Bueno in the Costa do Sauipe, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. — Odds: Daniel Galan 50.0% · Gonzalo Bueno 50.0% · Completed Match 0.4%

データ出典: Polymarket.

Market End

Live

11월 11일 오전 04:30

D-6

Time to market close

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What It Means for Traders

Market consensus: "Daniel Galan" scenario leads at 50%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case50%

Daniel Galan (50%)

The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (50%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.

Triggers:
  • →Official announcement or confirmation
  • →Positive comments from relevant authorities
  • →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Invalidation:

Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%

Base Case50%

Gonzalo Bueno (50%)

Alternative scenario with 50% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.

Triggers:
  • →Data release contradicting initial expectations
  • →Shift in position by key stakeholders
  • →Gradual change in market sentiment
Invalidation:

New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift

Bear Case0%

Low probability scenario (0%)

Currently rated at 0%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.

Triggers:
  • →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
  • →Major system failure or security incident
  • →Global macro shock event
Invalidation:

Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • •Resolution in 6 days
  • •Related official announcements or data releases
  • •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities

Timeline to Resolution

Resolution in 6 days (short-term)

This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All trading decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
元のソース

Polymarket

この分析はPolymarket予測市場データに基づいています。

View on Polymarket
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