Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026?
市場確率
Volume: $243,157
確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。
マーケット概要
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 5 12:00 PM ET to November 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. — Odds: 65-89 57.5% · 90-114 28.5% · 40-64 7.8% · 115-139 5.8% · 140-164 0.9%
データ出典: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 8일 오전 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "65-89" scenario leads at 57%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
65-89 (57%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (57%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 37%
90-114 (28%)
Alternative scenario with 28% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (8%)
Currently rated at 8%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution in 2 days
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in 2 days (short-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
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