US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
市場確率
Volume: $258,547
確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。
マーケット概要
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). — Odds: December 31 79.5% · November 30 56.5% · November 22 52.5% · November 15 38.5% · November 8 13.0%
データ出典: Polymarket.
Market End
Live1월 1일 오전 05:29
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "December 31" scenario leads at 80%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
December 31 (80%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (80%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 60%
November 30 (56%)
Alternative scenario with 56% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
November 22 (53%)
Currently rated at 53%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
2+ months (long-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Knoxville: Emile Hudd vs Justin Boulais
This market refers to the tennis match between Emile Hudd and Justin Boulais in the Knoxville, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. — Odds: Emile Hudd 100.0% · Completed Match 99.6% · Justin Boulais 0.1%