Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
市場確率
Volume: $174,194
確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。
マーケット概要
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. — Odds: December 31 30.5% · November 30 17.5% · November 15 3.9%
データ出典: Polymarket.
Market End
Live1월 1일 오전 06:59
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "December 31" scenario leads at 31%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
December 31 (31%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (31%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
November 30 (18%)
Alternative scenario with 18% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (4%)
Currently rated at 4%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
2+ months (long-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
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