What price will Bitcoin hit on November 4?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $359,083
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
What price will Bitcoin hit on November 4? — Odds: ↑ 82,000 11.2% · ↑ 83,000 2.5% · ↓ 77,000 1.8% · ↓ 76,000 0.5% · ↑ 84,000 0.4%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 5일 오후 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "↑ 82,000" scenario leads at 11%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
↑ 82,000 (11%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (11%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
↑ 83,000 (2%)
Alternative scenario with 2% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (2%)
Currently rated at 2%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •BTC: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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