Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 6?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $165,073
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) on 6 Nov '26. — Odds: 13°C 99.4% · 14°C 0.4% · 15°C 0.1% · 12°C 0.1% · 11°C 0.1%
Based on Polymarket data.
Market End
Live11월 6일 오후 09:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "13°C" scenario leads at 99%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
13°C (99%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (99%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 79%
14°C (0%)
Alternative scenario with 0% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (0%)
Currently rated at 0%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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