Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $152,543
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. — Odds: March 31, 2027 23.5% · December 31, 2026 15.5% · November 30, 2026 4.5% · November 15, 2026 2.5% · November 8, 2026 0.7%
Based on Polymarket data.
Market End
Live4월 1일 오후 12:59
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "March 31, 2027" scenario leads at 24%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
March 31, 2027 (24%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (24%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
December 31, 2026 (16%)
Alternative scenario with 16% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (5%)
Currently rated at 5%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
5+ months (long-term)
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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