BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Market Probabilities
Volume: $236,011
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. — Odds: Alex Michelsen 99.7% · Under 98.4% · Over 50.0% · Over 2.5 50.0% · Under 2.5 50.0%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 17일 오후 09:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "Alex Michelsen" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
Alex Michelsen (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
Under (98%)
Alternative scenario with 98% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Over (50%)
Currently rated at 50%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution in 7 days
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in 7 days (short-term)
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
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