What price will Bitcoin hit on November 4?
Probabilidades do mercado
Volume: $358,386
As probabilidades refletem o sentimento coletivo do mercado. Não é aconselhamento de investimento.
Visão geral do mercado
What price will Bitcoin hit on November 4? — Odds: ↑ 82,000 12.3% · ↑ 83,000 2.5% · ↓ 77,000 1.1% · ↑ 84,000 0.7% · ↓ 76,000 0.4%
Fonte de dados: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 5일 오후 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "↑ 82,000" scenario leads at 12%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
↑ 82,000 (12%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (12%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
↑ 83,000 (2%)
Alternative scenario with 2% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (1%)
Currently rated at 1%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •BTC: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
Esta análise é baseada em dados do mercado de previsão Polymarket.
View on Polymarket
Democrats surge toward Senate, House majorities, with crypto braced for new direction
The dominance of Republicans in all three government branches has been broken by the midterms, and the industry will feel the result as Congress changes hands.