Highest temperature in Shenzhen on November 9?
Probabilidades do mercado
Volume: $121,744
As probabilidades refletem o sentimento coletivo do mercado. Não é aconselhamento de investimento.
Visão geral do mercado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport (ZGSZ) on 9 Nov '26. — Odds: 28°C 98.7% · 29°C 1.2% · 30°C 0.4% · 27°C 0.1% · 26°C 0.1%
Fonte de dados: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 9일 오후 09:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "28°C" scenario leads at 99%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
28°C (99%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (99%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 79%
29°C (1%)
Alternative scenario with 1% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (0%)
Currently rated at 0%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •SOL: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
Esta análise é baseada em dados do mercado de previsão Polymarket.
View on Polymarket
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