Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
市場機率
Volume: $566,407
機率反映集體市場情緒，不構成投資建議。
市場概覽
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. — Odds: Carlos Alcaraz 100.0% · Alex Michelsen 100.0% · Under 2.5 100.0% · Under 100.0% · Completed Match 100.0%
數據來源: Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 12일 오전 03:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "Carlos Alcaraz" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
Carlos Alcaraz (100%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%
Alex Michelsen (100%)
Alternative scenario with 100% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Under 2.5 (100%)
Currently rated at 100%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution in 7 days
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution in 7 days (short-term)
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