FutureRadar
Tennis·Sports·Games

Orleans: Clement Tabur vs Lukas Neumayer

FutureRadar Desk
3 min readPolymarket
6d 12h left
Volume: $309K
원문·근거: Polymarket ↗
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Orleans: Clement Tabur vs Lukas Neumayer

市場機率

Lukas Neumayer100.0%
Over99.8%
Over 2.599.6%
Clement Tabur60.5%
Completed Match55.0%
Under 2.50.4%
Under0.3%

Volume: $308,859

Total Vol: $308,85924h: $322,113Liquidity: $122,690

機率反映集體市場情緒，不構成投資建議。

市場概覽

This market refers to the tennis match between Clement Tabur and Lukas Neumayer in the Orleans, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. — Odds: Lukas Neumayer 100.0% · Over 99.8% · Over 2.5 99.6% · Clement Tabur 60.5% · Completed Match 55.0%

數據來源: Polymarket.

Market End

Live

11월 16일 오후 06:00

D-6

Time to market close

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What It Means for Traders

Market consensus: "Lukas Neumayer" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case100%

Lukas Neumayer (100%)

The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.

Triggers:
  • →Official announcement or confirmation
  • →Positive comments from relevant authorities
  • →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Invalidation:

Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%

Base Case100%

Over (100%)

Alternative scenario with 100% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.

Triggers:
  • →Data release contradicting initial expectations
  • →Shift in position by key stakeholders
  • →Gradual change in market sentiment
Invalidation:

New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift

Bear Case100%

Over 2.5 (100%)

Currently rated at 100%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.

Triggers:
  • →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
  • →Major system failure or security incident
  • →Global macro shock event
Invalidation:

Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • •Resolution in 7 days
  • •Related official announcements or data releases
  • •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities

Timeline to Resolution

Resolution in 7 days (short-term)

This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All trading decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
原始來源

Polymarket

此分析基於Polymarket預測市場數據。

View on Polymarket
下一篇
Hersonissos 3: Johannus Monday vs Georgii Kravchenko
Tennis·D-6

Hersonissos 3: Johannus Monday vs Georgii Kravchenko

This market refers to the tennis match between Johannus Monday and Georgii Kravchenko in the Hersonissos 3, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. — Odds: Johannus Monday 100.0% · Completed Match 100.0% · Under 2.5 100.0% · Under 100.0% · Georgii Kravchenko 0.1%

·Polymarket