What price will Bitcoin hit on November 11?
Market Probabilities
Volume: $459,160
Probabilities reflect collective market sentiment. Not investment advice.
Market Overview
What price will Bitcoin hit on November 11? — Odds: ↓ 73,000 5.9% · ↑ 75,000 5.5% · ↓ 72,000 1.2% · ↑ 76,000 1.2% · ↓ 71,000 0.6%
Based on Polymarket.
Market End
Live11월 12일 오후 02:00
Time to market close
What It Means for Traders
Market consensus: "↓ 73,000" scenario leads at 6%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.
Scenario Analysis
↓ 73,000 (6%)
The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (6%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.
- →Official announcement or confirmation
- →Positive comments from relevant authorities
- →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 30%
↑ 75,000 (6%)
Alternative scenario with 6% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.
- →Data release contradicting initial expectations
- →Shift in position by key stakeholders
- →Gradual change in market sentiment
New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift
Low probability scenario (1%)
Currently rated at 1%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.
- →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
- →Major system failure or security incident
- →Global macro shock event
Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes
Key Catalysts to Watch
- •Resolution imminent (within 24 hours)
- •Related official announcements or data releases
- •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities
Timeline to Resolution
Resolution expected tomorrow
Related Assets
- •BTC: Monitor price action and key support/resistance levels
Polymarket
This analysis is based on Polymarket prediction market data.
View on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. — Odds: December 31 30.5% · November 30 16.5% · November 15 3.4%