FutureRadar
Tennis·Sports·Games

Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

FutureRadar Desk
3 min readPolymarket
6d 22h left
Volume: $481K
원문·근거: Polymarket ↗
共有:
Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

市場確率

Carlos Alcaraz100.0%
Casper Ruud83.5%
Under 2.579.5%
Completed Match55.0%
Over52.5%
Under50.0%
Over 2.520.5%

Volume: $481,407

Total Vol: $481,40724h: $543,363Liquidity: $359,192

確率は集団的な市場センチメントを反映しています。投資アドバイスではありません。

マーケット概要

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. — Odds: Carlos Alcaraz 100.0% · Casper Ruud 83.5% · Under 2.5 79.5% · Completed Match 55.0% · Over 52.5%

データ出典: Polymarket.

Market End

Live

11월 15일 오전 01:00

D-7

Time to market close

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What It Means for Traders

Market consensus: "Carlos Alcaraz" scenario leads at 100%. Expect volatility spike if outcome diverges from expectations.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case100%

Carlos Alcaraz (100%)

The scenario expected by the majority of market participants (100%). If confirmed, the market will likely move on quickly to the next catalyst.

Triggers:
  • →Official announcement or confirmation
  • →Positive comments from relevant authorities
  • →Prediction probability rises above 85%
Invalidation:

Reassess if leading scenario probability drops below 80%

Base Case84%

Casper Ruud (84%)

Alternative scenario with 84% probability. New information or events could strengthen this direction.

Triggers:
  • →Data release contradicting initial expectations
  • →Shift in position by key stakeholders
  • →Gradual change in market sentiment
Invalidation:

New decisive information emerges causing sharp probability shift

Bear Case80%

Under 2.5 (80%)

Currently rated at 80%, but could trigger the largest market reaction if realized.

Triggers:
  • →Unexpected regulatory announcement or legal action
  • →Major system failure or security incident
  • →Global macro shock event
Invalidation:

Key risk factors are resolved and market stabilizes

Key Catalysts to Watch

  • •Resolution in 7 days
  • •Related official announcements or data releases
  • •Sharp movements in prediction market probabilities

Timeline to Resolution

Resolution in 7 days (short-term)

This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All trading decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
元のソース

Polymarket

この分析はPolymarket予測市場データに基づいています。

View on Polymarket
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This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Jurij Rodionov in the Bratislava 2, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. — Odds: Jurij Rodionov 100.0% · Completed Match 99.5% · Dalibor Svrcina 0.5%

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